The UK government is experimenting with a new stance on Brexit, though this should not be confused with a change in direction. The adjustment is primarily tonal.
Previously, the Labour leadership portrayed Britain's separation from Europe as a permanent feature of the political landscape, awkward to handle perhaps, but inescapable. Now, they are willing to acknowledge it as a serious problem.
Addressing attendees at a regional investment conference this week, the finance minister listed Brexit alongside the pandemic and spending cuts as factors behind ongoing financial stagnation. She repeated this perspective during an IMF meeting in the US capital, noting that the national efficiency issue has been compounded by the manner in which the UK left the EU.
This represented a precisely formulated statement, attributing harm not to the departure decision but to its execution; blaming the officials who handled it, not the public who supported it. This differentiation will be crucial when the financial plan is unveiled next month. The aim is to attribute certain economic problems to the deal negotiated by Boris Johnson without seeming to disrespect the aspirations of those who voted to exit.
For those who value evidence, the financial debate is mostly resolved. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the UK's sustained output is 4% lower than it could have been with continued EU membership.
In addition to the costs of trade friction, there has been a ongoing drop in business investment caused by governmental uncertainty and unclear rules. There was also the lost potential of government energy being redirected toward a task for which no preparation had been made, since few proponents had seriously considered the practical implications of making it happen.
With evidence being clear, officials find it hard to maintain political neutrality. The Bank of England governor told last week's IMF meeting that he takes no side on Brexit before adding that its effect on expansion will be negative for the coming years.
He forecast a mild corrective rebalancing over the long term, which provides scant relief to a chancellor who must tackle a significant revenue shortfall soon. Taxes are set to rise, and the chancellor wants the public to recognize that leaving the EU is one contributing factor.
This admission is important to voice because it is true. This doesn't ensure electoral advantage from expressing it. This truth was evident when the administration delivered its previous tax-raising budget and during the general election campaign, which Labour fought while avoiding the inevitability of tax increases.
Now, with the administration being neither new nor popular, explaining economic hardship comes across as justifying failure to many voters. There could be more benefit in faulting the Tories for all problems if they were the sole opposition and a serious challenger. The usual ruling party tactic in a two-party system is to claim cleanup duty the opponent's errors and caution voters. The rise of Reform UK complicates matters.
Ideological gaps between the main opponents are minimal, but the electorate notice personal rivalry more than shared beliefs. Supporters of the Reform leader due to lost faith in the system—particularly on border policy—do not view Reform and the Tories as aligned groups. One party has a history of permitting entry, while the other does not—a contrast Farage will consistently highlight.
The Reform leader is less eager to talk about EU exit, partly because it is a legacy shared with Conservatives and also because there are no positive outcomes to showcase. When pressed, he may contend that the goal was sabotaged by flawed implementation, but even that defense admits failure. Easier to redirect conversation.
This explains why the government feels increasingly assured bringing it up. The prime minister's recent party conference speech marked a turning point. Earlier, he had discussed British-European ties in bureaucratic language, focusing on a partnership renewal that addressed non-controversial trade barriers like border inspections while steering clear of the divisive cultural issues at the core of the post-referendum turmoil.
In his speech, Starmer did not fully embrace pro-EU arguments, but he suggested familiarity with previous assertions. He referenced "Brexit lies on the side of the campaign vehicle"—alluding to leave campaign pledges about health service money—in the framework of "snake oil" promoted by leaders whose simplistic answers worsen the nation's problems.
Departure from the EU was equated with the pandemic as difficult experiences endured by the public in the past period. Comparing Brexit to a disease indicates a tougher tone, even if the financial steps being negotiated in Brussels remain unchanged.
The aim is to connect Farage to a well-known example of deceptive campaigning, implying he cannot be trusted; that he capitalizes on frustration and creates conflict but lacks governing competence.
The removal of four Kent councillors from Reform's local government team reinforces that narrative. Leaked footage of a video conference showed internal squabbling and recrimination, demonstrating the difficulties inexperienced figures face when providing community resources on tight finances—far tougher than distributing leaflets about cutting waste or managing borders.
This criticism is productive for the government, but it depends on the government's service delivery being sufficiently strong that electing Reform seems a dangerous experiment. Additionally, this is a message for a later election that may not occur until the end of the decade. If Starmer and Reeves wish to appear as antidotes to Faragism, they must show meanwhile with a clear, constructive program of their own.
There are limits to what is possible with a change in tone, and time is short. How much easier to make the case today that EU exit is harmful and Farage a fraud if they had said so earlier. How many more options might they have? Should they receive credit for acknowledging it today when other excuses have failed? Certainly. But the issue with arriving at the evident truth via the most circuitous route is that observers wonder the procrastination. Starting from the truth is quicker.
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