A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
