Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.