Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring

A key narrative of the EPL season so far is the decline of goals scored in open play and how teams are netting more from set-pieces instead.

When we compare goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, we note 39 fewer scored in open play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer overall.

Considering the broader view, the number of shots sides are producing reveal an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.

Even with the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen only two additional attempts created from them outside of spot-kicks, showing the efficiency clubs have been at finding ways to score from dead-ball situations.

Goal Averages Reveal an Interesting Narrative

Over 300 goals scored in 110 games up to now calculates at 2.74 scores each match, which if it continued for all 38 games would be the least for five years, since 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

However, only 196 scores scored in open-play translates to 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the least for 16 seasons, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).

That campaign also marks the unique EPL season to see scoring more frequently from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Are Most Responsible?

In terms of scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the most significant drop, netting only four in 11 games, 10 less than at this stage the previous campaign.

Outside of Wolves, the Premier League's drop in open play goals is very much a London phenomenon, with five of the capital's seven sides recording a minimum of five goals fewer from open play than the prior season.

In fairness, that's largely down to their scoring many goals at the early stages of last season instead of them really struggling to convert in open play this season.

Conversely Manchester City have seen the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 goals to date originating in open play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

Comparing clubs that came up with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off winners the Black Cats have scored three more scores in open play than Southampton did in matchday 11 on their way to demotion last season.

When it comes to scoring from set-pieces (excluding penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have experienced the biggest increase, with the two clubs making up for the five less goals that they've netted in open play with the same number from dead-ball chances.

Man United have netted twice as many scores from set-plays as they managed in the first 11 matches the previous campaign ahead of the manager assumed control, while the Black Cats once more have been better at converting than the club they replaced they replaced.

Man City appear not to have received the trend about increasing scoring from set-plays, because they've netted three fewer than last season, as have Nottingham Forest, though that might be down to the tactical shift they're working to install.

General Tendencies

Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this season's leading trend-followers by netting less goals from open play and more from set-pieces, while Manchester City stand as the only side to defy the pattern up to now by doing the contrary.

It will be interesting to see if clubs persist to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and start netting more goals in open-play also.